Bow Tie Kreative Intel System

File 11

How the scores work

Scoring makes triage reproducible; it does not turn uncertain public evidence into certainty. Preserve the raw evidence, the component scores, the reviewer notes and the overrides.

The four rubrics

Opportunity priority score

11 dimensions · 0-100

BaseOpportunityScore = weighted sum x 20; RiskAdjustedPriority = Base x ConfidenceFactor x (1 - RiskPenalty)

Score with this rubric →

Finding quality dimensions

Finding quality dimensions
Dimension035
Evidenceno supportcredible single source/corroborated secondaryE4–E5, reproducible and current
Entity resolutionunresolvedprobable matchexact legal/domain/person-role match
Recencyobsolete/unknownrelevant but agingcurrent for the decision/window
Directnessrumorproxydirect observation/measurement
Independencecopied originuncertain originsindependent origins
Contradiction checknonebasic checkstrong alternatives actively tested

Source: file 11 · 2-finding-quality-score · line 11

Opportunity priority dimensions

Opportunity priority dimensions
DimensionWeightMeaning
Evidence strength15%quality of the underlying finding
Economic materiality15%plausible contribution margin, cash, risk, or capacity effect
Service fit15%ability of the offered service to address the mechanism
Executive relevance10%connection to named role and public priority
Strategic differentiation10%moves beyond table-stakes improvement
Time to useful evidence10%how quickly a test can confirm/refute value
Reversibility5%ability to stop or recover
Capacity fit5%likely operational feasibility
Urgency5%cost/risk of delay or time-bound window
Novelty without intrusiveness5%non-obvious but appropriate
Data sufficiency5%inputs available to size or test

Source: file 11 · 3-opportunity-priority-score · line 30

Hard gates override the numeric score: unresolved identity, prohibited source or use, sensitive-personal-data dependence, exploit or credential dependence, a misleading financial claim, or no plausible service-to-mechanism fit.

Lead qualification dimensions

Lead qualification dimensions
DimensionPoints
target fits chosen industry/region/size constraints0–15
public signal maps to offered service0–20
evidence quality0–15
plausible materiality0–15
timing/trigger0–10
responsible executive role resolved0–10
lawful contact route and basis0–10
small useful diagnostic can be offered0–5

Source: file 11 · 5-lead-qualification-score · line 94

Economic model confidence classes

Economic model confidence classes
Model classInputsLabel
M0no volume/value inputsnot estimable
M1benchmarks/assumptions onlyillustrative scenario
M2one reported/measured anchor plus benchmarksanchored scenario
M3several target-reported/measured inputsplanning estimate
M4reconciled internal financial/operational datadecision model
M5controlled result/finance-confirmedvalidated realized value

Source: file 11 · 8-economic-model-confidence · line 147