Financial impact models

Input labels

Scenario convention

currency: CAD
period: annual
model_class: M0|M1|M2|M3|M4|M5
result_class: REPORTED_OR_MEASURED|DETERMINISTIC_CALCULATION|ESTIMATE|SCENARIO
low: {}
base: {}
high: {}
attribution_factor: [0, 1]
realization_factor: [0, 1]
confidence_band: low|moderate|high|very-high
excluded_effects: []
overlap_group: ""

Model 4

Conversion-gap contribution

If conversion or traffic is unobserved, mark M1 scenario. Do not substitute a benchmark without showing it.

Incremental customers = Eligible visits
                      × (Proposed conversion − Baseline conversion)
                      × Lead-to-customer rate

Annual contribution = Incremental customers
                    × Contribution margin per new customer
                    × Realization factor
                    × Attribution factor

Source: file 12 · 4-conversion-gap-contribution · line 38

Model 5

Lead-form friction

Measure completion and lead quality together; shorter forms can increase low-quality volume.

Recovered qualified leads = Form starts
                          × (Proposed completion − Baseline completion)
                          × Qualification rate

Value = Recovered qualified leads
      × Close rate
      × Contribution margin per customer

Source: file 12 · 5-lead-form-friction · line 53

Model 6

Paid-media waste

Do not count reallocated media dollars as savings: the spend continues. Keep cash reduction and reinvestment contribution as mutually exclusive cases unless the budget is split explicitly. Public ad libraries show creative/activity signals, not spend efficiency for most advertisers. Without account data, output a diagnostic scenario, not “ad waste.”

Addressable inefficient spend = Annual media spend
                              × Inefficient-spend share
                              × Addressable share

Cash-saving case = Budget actually removed
                 − termination/transition cost
                 − incremental measurement cost

Reinvestment case = Incremental conversions attributable to redeployment
                  × contribution per conversion
                  − incremental creative/operating cost

Source: file 12 · 6-paid-media-waste · line 67

Model 7

Organic demand gap

Deduplicate branded and non-branded demand; model ranking probability and time-to-rank. Search volume estimates are vendor estimates, not census counts.

Incremental qualified visits = Search demand
                             × attainable CTR/share
                             × content coverage
                             × ramp factor

Contribution = Incremental qualified visits
             × conversion rate
             × contribution margin per conversion

Source: file 12 · 7-organic-demand-gap · line 85

Model 8

Churn reduction

Do not multiply by full customer LTV if another model already includes future-period retention; state gross vs net revenue retention.

Retained accounts = Active accounts
                  × (Baseline churn − Proposed churn)

Retained contribution = Retained accounts
                      × Remaining-period contribution per account
                      × Realization

Source: file 12 · 8-churn-reduction · line 100

Model 9

Activation/onboarding improvement

Cost savings from automation are modeled separately unless labor is truly removed or redeployed.

Additional activated customers = New customers
                               × (Proposed activation − Baseline activation)

Value = Additional activated customers
      × Activation-to-retention lift
      × Contribution margin over chosen horizon

Source: file 12 · 9-activation-onboarding-improvement · line 113

Model 9A

CAC, contribution LTV, LTV/CAC, and payback

Use one acquisition cohort, attribution rule, currency, and observation window throughout.

State whether CAC is blended, channel-specific, new-logo, or marginal. Acquisition cost includes the defined media, sales, tooling, agency, incentive, and labor components consistently. Acquired customers—not leads or signups—must use the chosen cohort definition.

Contribution LTV is net of cost to serve, fulfillment, support, refunds/credits, payment costs, and expected retention/churn over the chosen horizon. Do not mix revenue LTV with contribution CAC economics.

The shortcut below is illustrative only when average revenue, contribution margin, and churn are approximately stationary and the timing convention is explicit:

Use survival/cohort curves for non-stationary retention, contractual terms, expansion, or censoring. Do not compare LTV from mature cohorts with CAC from a different period/channel. Show observation maturity, payback censoring, and sensitivity to retention.

CAC = Attributable acquisition cost for cohort
    / Acquired customers in the same cohort

Contribution LTV = Σ expected cohort contribution_t / (1 + discount rate)^t

LTV/CAC = Contribution LTV / CAC

CAC payback period = first period where cumulative realized cohort contribution
                     ≥ cohort acquisition cost

Illustrative contribution LTV ≈ ARPA per period × contribution margin / churn per period

Source: file 12 · 9a-cac-contribution-ltv-ltv-cac-and-payback · line 126

Model 10

Workflow automation and capacity

Do not call all time saved “cash savings.” Label it capacity unless staffing/vendor cost is actually avoided.

Gross hours released = Annual transaction volume
                     × Minutes saved per transaction / 60
                     × Adoption

Capacity value = Gross hours released
               × Loaded labor cost per hour
               × Realizable/redeployable share

Net annual value = Capacity value
                 + Avoided error/rework contribution
                 − Recurring software/operations cost

Source: file 12 · 10-workflow-automation-and-capacity · line 154

Model 11

Support/service cost

Guardrails: repeat contact rate, customer satisfaction, escalation, accessibility, and error severity.

Avoided contacts = Annual contacts
                 × Deflection rate
                 × Quality-adjustment factor

Cost value = Avoided contacts × Fully loaded cost per resolved contact

Source: file 12 · 11-support-service-cost · line 172

Model 12

Error and rework

Cost per error can include labor, refunds, penalties, lost contribution, and recovery—but remove overlap.

Annual error cost = Unit volume × Error rate × Cost per error
Avoided cost = Annual error cost × Preventable share × Realization

Source: file 12 · 12-error-and-rework · line 184

Model 13

Pricing-power scenario

Elasticity relationship:

Elasticity is segment- and context-specific. Public competitor prices do not reveal target elasticity. Recommend a controlled price/packaging test.

Incremental revenue = (Proposed price × Proposed units)
                    − (Baseline price × Baseline units)

Incremental contribution = Incremental revenue
                         − change in total variable/service cost
                         − transition/churn cost

%ΔQuantity ≈ Elasticity × %ΔPrice

Source: file 12 · 13-pricing-power-scenario · line 193

Model 14

Upsell/cross-sell

Subtract cannibalization, discounting, sales effort, and added support burden.

Incremental contribution = Eligible accounts
                         × Incremental attach rate
                         × Contribution per add-on
                         × Realization

Source: file 12 · 14-upsell-cross-sell · line 212

Model 15

Vendor/supply concentration

Use scenario probabilities, not false frequencies, when data is sparse. Include dual-sourcing or redundancy cost.

Expected annual loss = Probability of disruption
                     × Duration
                     × Contribution at risk per period
                     × Unmitigated exposure

Mitigation value = Baseline expected loss − Post-control expected loss

Source: file 12 · 15-vendor-supply-concentration · line 223

Model 16

Performance/availability

Public performance tests are samples. Do not infer annual loss without representative traffic, conversion, geography, device, and incident duration.

Expected contribution loss = Affected sessions/transactions
                           × Failure or abandonment delta
                           × contribution per successful transaction

Source: file 12 · 16-performance-availability · line 236

Model 17

Reputation/narrative scenario

There is no universal dollar conversion from sentiment or SOV.

Use an exposure model only with an explicit causal path:

Prefer a measurement plan: branded-search trend, direct traffic, win/loss reasons, cancellation themes, referral rate, share-of-search, survey trust, and response-time experiment.

At-risk contribution = Exposed qualified demand/accounts
                     × behavior-change scenario
                     × contribution per unit
                     × attribution

Source: file 12 · 17-reputation-narrative-scenario · line 246

Model 18

PR share-of-voice opportunity

SOV is an attention metric, not revenue. A commercial scenario additionally needs outlet relevance, audience overlap, message penetration, referral/brand-search lift, conversion, and margin.

Comparison set = target + up to three selected comparators
SOV = target qualifying mentions / all qualifying comparison-set mentions

Source: file 12 · 18-pr-share-of-voice-opportunity · line 261

Model 19

Security and compliance risk

Use expected-loss ranges only after authorization and appropriate expertise:

Passive observations cannot reliably determine event probability. Public outreach should not quantify breach loss from an unverified fingerprint.

Expected annual loss = Event probability range × Impact range
Mitigation value = reduction in expected loss − control cost

Source: file 12 · 19-security-and-compliance-risk · line 270

Model 20

Cost of inaction

Model delay over a declared period. Do not add overlapping conversion, acquisition, and revenue effects.

COI(t) = Lost contribution
       + Incremental operating cost
       + Expected risk cost
       + Opportunity delay cost
       − avoided intervention cost

Source: file 12 · 20-cost-of-inaction · line 281

Model 21

ROI, NPV, and payback

State whether benefit is cash, contribution margin, capacity, avoided expected loss, or strategic option value.

ROI = (Realized benefit − Total cost) / Total cost

NPV = Σ from t=0 to T of CashFlow_t / (1 + discount rate)^t

Payback month = first month cumulative net cash flow ≥ 0

Source: file 12 · 21-roi-npv-and-payback · line 293

Model 22

Break-even

Break-even is often the most credible outreach number because it asks whether a small lift would justify a diagnostic.

Required incremental units = Total intervention cost / contribution per incremental unit

Required conversion lift = Total intervention cost
                         / (eligible volume × contribution per conversion)

Source: file 12 · 22-break-even · line 305