Bow Tie Kreative Intel System

1. The four-layer engine

Layer A — Change states

01.layer-a-change-states.t1
CodeStateMeaningAudit question
C0BaselineCurrent/default state; no meaningful changeWhat exists now and how does it normally behave?
C1Minor ChangeLocal, low-depth adjustment; limited dependenciesWhat can improve through tuning or one-step repair?
C2Major ChangeMaterial change across several components or outcomesWhat requires coordinated redesign or meaningful investment?
C3Structural ChangeRules, architecture, incentives, ownership, or feedback loops changeWhat must be rebuilt at the system level?
C4Paradigm ChangeUnit of value, category, business model, or governing assumption changesWhat new demand curve makes the old comparison less relevant?

These are not maturity grades. A C4 idea is not automatically better than a C1 intervention. Selection depends on evidence, fit, urgency, reversibility, capacity, and time-to-useful-evidence.

Layer B — Internal system variables

01.layer-b-internal-system-variables.t1
CodeVariableDefinitionDiagnostic prompt
S1ObjectWhat is acted uponWhat entity, asset, message, process, or relationship changes?
S2ConditionsOperating circumstancesUnder what market, technical, temporal, geographic, or regulatory conditions?
S3ActionsWhat the system doesWhat actions create, move, transform, measure, or stop value?
S4ToolsMechanismsWhich human, software, channel, model, contract, or machine performs the action?
S5ResourcesRequired inputsWhat information, people, capital, energy, permission, time, or assets are needed?
S6OutcomesProduced statesWhat measurable output or outcome results?
S7FeedbackLearning and controlHow does the result change the next decision or system state?
S8ConstraintsLimitsWhat limits performance, legality, adoption, reliability, or scale?
S9ValueBeneficiary and benefitFor whom is value created, of what type, and at whose cost?
S10Failure ModeBreakdownHow does the system fail, become misleading, or create harm at this state?

The standard structural matrix is 10 variables × 5 change states = 50 cells.

Layer C — Fourteen change variables

01.layer-c-fourteen-change-variables.t1
CodeVariableCore questionUseful measures
D1MagnitudeHow much change?absolute delta, percentage delta, severity
D2RateHow quickly?change per day/week/quarter
D3DirectionMoving toward what?improving, degrading, diverging, converging
D4ScopeHow broadly?entities, teams, regions, products, channels affected
D5DepthHow fundamentally?surface symptom through governing rule
D6DurationFor how long?transient, seasonal, persistent, permanent
D7FrequencyHow often?event count per period
D8AccelerationIs the rate changing?second difference, slope change
D9VariabilityHow consistent or unpredictable?range, variance, coefficient of variation
D10DetectabilityHow visible or measurable?signal latency, observability, false-negative risk
D11ReversibilityCan it be undone?recovery time, switching cost, data persistence
D12PropagationHow does it spread?dependency paths, affected nodes, time to spread
D13AmplificationWhat increases or dampens it?multipliers, network effects, feedback gain
D14AccumulationWhat builds over time?backlog, technical debt, reputation memory, compounding value

For every critical feature, opportunity, or risk: evaluate all fourteen variables; record N/A with a reason; and test baseline, boundary, contradiction, and failure states.

Layer D — 6×6×6 expansion and execution lens

Interrogatives

Who | What | When | Where | Why | How

Relational modifiers

Direction | Scope | Depth | Duration | Frequency | Reversibility

Execution impact

01.execution-impact.t1
CodeStatePermission rule in this system
I1Read-onlyPublic-source retrieval and passive observation; default allowed
I2VerifyRecheck, corroborate, calculate, or reproduce without changing target state; default allowed
I3Local changeCreate local notes, models, reports, and exports; allowed within project scope
I4Remote/persistent changeSave externally, update CRM, post, email, or mutate remote history; explicit authorization and human review required
I5Destructive changeDelete, overwrite, mass-contact, disrupt, exploit, or irreversibly alter; blocked unless separately and explicitly authorized for a legitimate administrative task
I6Security/policy boundaryAuthentication, credentials, protected systems, sensitive data, policy exceptions; stop and route to an authorized specialist

The query engine can form 6 × 6 × 6 = 216 first-order lenses. In passive research, most valid collection actions remain I1–I2. I3 is used for the audit artifact; I4 only for specifically approved CRM/outreach actions; I5–I6 are not prospecting tools.

2. Operators

01.2-operators.t1
SymbolMeaningExample
+compose required partsClaim + Evidence + Time
×generate combinationsChannel × Persona × Funnel Stage
state transitionmanual intake → instrumented intake
|mutually exclusive alternativesObserved | Inferred | Unknown
?optional only when justifiedExecutive?
{…}repeat zero or more{Evidence}
[…]gate or constraint[E3+ required]
~inference, never direct factslow response ~ queue friction
!contradiction or stop! recipient unresolved
@source/provenance pointer@source-0042
$[L,B,H]low/base/high financial range$[25k,60k,140k]
Δmeasured changeΔSOV = current − prior

3. Primitive record grammar

Audit          = ScopeContract, Target, { ResearchModule }, EvidenceLedger,
                 OpportunityPortfolio, Report, QualityReview ;

Target         = Organization, [ Executive ], Industry, Geography, TimeWindow ;

ResearchModule = Question, SourcePlan, { EvidenceRecord }, { Claim },
                 LakaAnalysis, [ FinancialModel ], Limitations ;

EvidenceRecord = SourceID, SourceType, CanonicalURL, Publisher,
                 PublishedAt, RetrievedAt, Extract, ContentFingerprint,
                 CollectionMethod, AccessClass, EvidenceState ;

Claim          = ClaimID, Subject, Predicate, Object, TimeQualifier,
                 ClaimState, { EvidenceLink }, Confidence, Contradictions,
                 ReviewStatus ;

LakaAnalysis   = ChangeState, InternalVariable, { ChangeVariable },
                 Interrogative, RelationalModifier, ImpactState ;

Opportunity    = Observation, Counterfactual, Mechanism, Beneficiary,
                 Intervention, ValueRange, Assumptions, Risks,
                 ReversibleTest, StopRule ;

Outreach       = PublicBusinessContext, OneFinding, BusinessEffect,
                 CredibilityBoundary, UsefulOffer, PermissionCTA ;

4. Canonical intelligence sentences

Observation

[O] As of {retrieval time}, {source} shows {inspectable fact} within {scope/time window}. @source

Calculation

[C] Using {cited inputs} and {formula}, the result is {value/range}; rounding and exclusions: {notes}. @inputs

Inference

[I] {Evidence set} is consistent with {explanation}, but {alternative explanations} remain plausible.

Hypothesis and test

[H] If {mechanism} is material, then {small reversible change} should move {leading metric}
from {baseline} toward {threshold} within {window}; stop if {guardrail}.

Financial scenario

[C][SCENARIO] At {low/base/high inputs}, {formula} yields {range}. This is a calculated scenario, not reported revenue or guaranteed ROI.

Outreach-safe finding

I noticed {public business fact}. It may be creating {bounded business effect}; I have not seen your internal data.
I mapped a {small next step} that would confirm or reject it within {time/evidence threshold}.

5. Fifty-cell structural matrix

For each row, describe the state rather than simply listing an idea.

01.5-fifty-cell-structural-matrix.t1
VariableC0 BaselineC1 MinorC2 MajorC3 StructuralC4 Paradigm
Objectcurrent unitlocally adjusted unitmaterially redesigned unitrelationships/rules become the objectunit of value/category changes
Conditionsnormal operating contextone bounded condition changesseveral important conditions changegoverning conditions are redesignedold conditions become irrelevant or inverted
Actionscurrent workflowtune/repair one actioncoordinate new action setchange decision rights and feedbackintroduce a new value-producing behavior
Toolsincumbent toolsconfigure/augmentreplace/integrate a major toolsetredesign architecture/tool ownershiptool becomes a new platform or market mechanism
Resourcescurrent inputssmall incremental inputmeaningful new capacityreallocate capital/people/data rightsresource model changes or new resource is created
Outcomescurrent resultlocal KPI liftmaterial multi-KPI changedurable system performance changenew category outcome/demand curve
Feedbackcurrent reportingadd a signal/alertclosed-loop experimentationfeedback changes governance/incentiveslearning system continuously redefines value
Constraintscurrent limitsremove one frictionovercome a material bottleneckchange policy/architecture/incentive constraintconstraint becomes advantage or disappears
Valuecurrent beneficiary/valuemore of same valuenew value mix or segmentvalue distribution changesnew beneficiary or unit of value
Failure Modecurrent breakdownlocal side effectcoordination/capacity failuresystemic lock-in or transition failurecategory error, adoption discontinuity, new externality

6. Alternative-generation grammar

For each material symptom, generate at least one option from each intervention family:

Observe only
Measure better
Clarify/communicate
Tune/configure
Remove friction
Automate
Reallocate
Redesign process
Redesign offer/pricing
Redesign architecture/governance
Partner/buy/build
Create new unit of value
Stop/retire
Defer with trigger

Cross each family with:

Target stakeholder × journey stage × channel × time horizon × ownership × reversibility

Then deduplicate alternatives that share the same mechanism and outcome. Preserve discarded options and the elimination reason.

7. Selection grammar

Eligible(option) = lawful
                 ∧ evidence-sufficient-for-next-step
                 ∧ service-fit
                 ∧ capacity-fit
                 ∧ risk-within-tolerance

Priority(option) = ExpectedValue
                 × Confidence
                 × StrategicFit
                 × Reversibility
                 × TimeToEvidenceFactor
                 ÷ ((1 + CostFactor)
                    × (1 + RiskFactor)
                    × (1 + DependencyLoad))

Use ordinal factors normalized from 0 to 1, or use the weighted model in 11-scoring-prioritization.md. The additive constants prevent division by zero. Do not pretend the expression is a precise economic equation. A C1 test can outrank a C4 transformation.

8. Coverage grammar

Applicable cells = Required cells − reasoned N/A cells
Coverage = completed applicable cells / applicable cells
Evidence coverage = claims with evidence / material claims
Contradiction coverage = material claims actively checked for disconfirming evidence / material claims

Do not count a blank as N/A. A reason is mandatory. Do not average away a failed security, privacy, evidence, or legal gate.

9. Change-memory grammar

Every monitoring event uses:

entity: ""
property: ""
prior_state: ""
current_state: ""
delta: ""
first_seen: ""
last_confirmed: ""
source_ids: []
change_variables:
  magnitude: ""
  rate: ""
  direction: ""
  scope: ""
  depth: ""
  duration: ""
  frequency: ""
  acceleration: ""
  variability: ""
  detectability: ""
  reversibility: ""
  propagation: ""
  amplification: ""
  accumulation: ""
confidence: ""

The engine stores change as a first-class record. It does not silently overwrite prior observations.


01-laka-core-grammar.md · 277 lines · 12738 bytes · SHA-256 cde4eccc9f7f8744