Bow Tie Kreative Intel System

1. Root instruction

INVESTIGATE(
  target,
  executive?,
  industry,
  geography,
  time_window,
  offered_services,
  mode,
  authorization
)
→ resolve
→ plan sources
→ collect passively
→ normalize
→ corroborate
→ analyze with LAKA
→ generate alternatives
→ model ranges
→ rank
→ report
→ prepare outreach and CRM record
→ review

2. Entity resolution

Organization = LegalName, TradingNames, CanonicalDomain,
               [ RegistryID ], [ Ticker ], [ Parent ], [ Subsidiaries ],
               Headquarters, OperatingRegions ;

Executive    = PublicName, PublicRole, OrganizationLink,
               EffectiveDates, PublicBusinessSources ;

Competitor   = Organization, ComparisonReason, SimilarityDimensions,
               InclusionEvidence ;

Resolve the company before collecting. Match at least two of domain, legal name, registry identifier, headquarters, ticker, or official profile. For a named person, match the role and company using official or reputable public business sources. Do not merge people on name alone.

Competitor selection grammar

Candidate pool = direct substitutes
               | same customer/job-to-be-done
               | same geography/price band
               | adjacent entrants with plausible substitution

Up to three primary comparators = maximize comparability across:
  customer + offer + geography + scale + channel + business model

If three firms are not truly comparable, disclose the mismatch and use fewer. Archetypes are optional labels/diversity aids, not a quota; three genuine direct rivals may all be selected.

3. Question grammar

Every research question contains:

question_id: Q-0001
decision_supported: ""
subject: ""
property_or_relationship: ""
time_window: ""
geography: ""
comparison: "baseline|competitor|prior period|benchmark|none"
claim_threshold: ""
disconfirming_evidence: ""
allowed_sources: []
excluded_methods: []
stop_condition: ""

Good questions can be falsified. Replace “Does the company have bad PR?” with “Within the declared 12-month window, what complaint themes recur across at least two independent source types, and how did company responses differ?”

4. Source-plan grammar

Question
→ preferred primary sources
→ independent corroboration
→ historical comparison
→ competitor equivalent
→ missing-evidence route
→ stop rule

Source order:

  1. government, regulator, court, standards body, official registry;
  2. company-controlled source, filing, status page, repository, published policy;
  3. platform-provided transparency source or first-party review record;
  4. reputable reporting, trade publication, or research organization;
  5. public community discussion or user-generated review;
  6. aggregator/snippet used only as a lead to the original.

Company-controlled sources are authoritative about what the company publicly claims, not proof that the claim is true.

5. Nine domain modules

02.5-nine-domain-modules.t1
CodeModuleUnit of analysis
P1Technical and passive OSINTpublic asset, configuration signal, dependency, document, change
P2PR, reputation, narrativemention, story, review, theme, response, outlet
P3Marketing and demandcreative, keyword/topic, content item, journey step, conversion signal
P4Blind spots and assetsunused channel, audience, content, data, partnership, region, offer
P5Microeconomicsunit, price, volume, variable cost, acquisition, retention, capacity
P6Competitorslike-for-like feature, offer, narrative, channel, performance proxy
P7Macroeconomicsexternal driver, exposure path, lag, leading indicator, scenario
P8Financial impactgap, mechanism, inputs, range, attribution, timing, confidence
P9Authority and CRMrelevant finding, offer match, decision-maker, compliant contact route

Each module uses the same evidence and LAKA grammar. This makes cross-domain findings comparable.

6. Volumetric decomposition

For each material signal, expand across these dimensions:

Entity × Asset × Stakeholder × Journey Stage × Channel × Geography
× Time × Event × Narrative × Metric × Source Type × Evidence State

Then apply the ten internal variables and five change states. Use all fourteen change variables on signals that could affect the recommendation or dollar model.

Entity alternatives

parent | subsidiary | brand | product | location | executive | board | employee role | customer segment | partner | supplier | investor | regulator | association | competitor

Asset alternatives

domain | site | app | API | repository | document | dataset | ad | landing page | email flow | review profile | listing | press room | event | patent/trademark | policy | price | offer | job post | status page

Stakeholder alternatives

buyer | user | champion | approver | blocker | employee | applicant | partner | vendor | regulator | investor | journalist | community

Journey alternatives

unaware | problem-aware | solution-aware | comparison | evaluation | purchase | onboarding | adoption | support | renewal | expansion | advocacy | exit

Time alternatives

current snapshot | prior snapshot | pre-event | event | post-event | seasonal | launch cycle | reporting period | rolling trend | leading indicator | lagging outcome

7. Symptom-to-hypothesis branching

Never jump from signal to diagnosis. Generate at least these hypothesis families:

02.7-symptom-to-hypothesis-branching.t1
FamilyExample explanation
Measurement artifactcollection bias, missing pages, source outage, changed taxonomy
Demandintent shifted, segment changed, seasonality, category decline/growth
Offervalue proposition, packaging, pricing, proof, differentiation
Acquisitiontargeting, creative fatigue, channel mix, discoverability
Conversionmessage match, trust, usability, accessibility, latency, form friction
Retentionactivation, value realization, support, product reliability
Operationsmanual work, queue, ownership, capacity, vendor dependency
Technologyarchitecture, performance, observability, integration, technical debt
Reputationservice failure, expectation gap, narrative vacuum, slow response
Competitiveentrant, imitation, bundling, distribution advantage, switching
Macrorates, inflation, labor, regulation, currency, supply chain
Intentional strategypremium positioning, controlled demand, channel exit, focus

Actively seek evidence that the apparent “gap” is intentional or immaterial.

8. Intervention branching

For each preferred hypothesis, generate state-distinct alternatives:

02.8-intervention-branching.t1
Change stateIntervention pattern
C0observe, preserve, benchmark, instrument
C1clarify, tune, repair, add one missing control, run one test
C2coordinate campaign/process redesign, integrate tools, repackage offer
C3change architecture, operating model, governance, incentives, data loop
C4redefine category, beneficiary, unit of value, delivery model, or demand curve

Also generate do nothing, defer until trigger, buy, build, partner, and stop/retire where relevant.

9. Elimination record

option_id: OPT-0001
mechanism: ""
change_state: C0|C1|C2|C3|C4
evidence_fit: 0-5
strategic_fit: 0-5
urgency: 0-5
reversibility: 0-5
capacity_fit: 0-5
time_to_useful_evidence: ""
estimated_cost_range: [low, base, high]
estimated_value_range: [low, base, high]
risk: 0-5
dependencies: []
decision: keep|defer|discard|needs-data
reason: ""

Do not discard a high-value structural option merely because it is slow; route it to a portfolio horizon while selecting a smaller near-term test.

10. Immediate-authority compression

The full research volume is compressed into:

One decision-maker
+ One public business priority
+ One non-obvious evidence chain
+ One bounded economic mechanism
+ One reversible diagnostic or intervention
+ One permission-based CTA

The outreach message must not expose the full surveillance trail. Use the minimum relevant evidence and link to public sources when helpful.

11. Unknown-handling grammar

Unknown(input)
→ state why it matters
→ identify lawful source or question that could resolve it
→ show which conclusions depend on it
→ keep model as range or not estimable
→ never fill with an uncited benchmark silently

12. Audit run state machine

DRAFT_SCOPE
→ RESOLVED_TARGET
→ APPROVED_SOURCE_PLAN
→ COLLECTING
→ NORMALIZING
→ ANALYZING
→ HUMAN_REVIEW
→ REPORT_READY
→ OUTREACH_READY
→ ARCHIVED_OR_MONITORED

Any policy, privacy, identity, or evidence failure moves the run to BLOCKED_REVIEW.


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